UK- Swiss yield gap- A market warning for Gilts and Sterling?
The chart above compares the 10 year yields of UK(Gilts) vs the Swiss 10 year yields. This is a weekly chart. The UK yields have always been slightly higher than the Swiss yields. Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, the yields of both countries were in a downward trend. But from 2020 onwards, the yields of both countries started to rise. But from 2022 onwards, the yields of the two countries started to diverge. The UK yields has started to rise and nearing the 2008 peak at 5.2% whereas the Swiss yields have started to fall The current yield difference is one of the widest ever offering a near 4.6% yield. This chart is a visual representation of the stark differences in the economic outlook of the two countries. Here we explore the reasons as to why this happened.
Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank of England was the first to start the QE program to support asset prices. The SNB also had a QE program. But this program was different from the QE embarked by other central banks. Swiss economy was considered a safe haven and money started to flood into the Swiss currency. As the Swiss currency started to